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Morning Dew 30 June 2020

FOKUS

INDONESIA'S INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION IN 1Q20

Bank Indonesia recorded Indonesia's International Investments Position (PII) in the 1Q20 showed a decrease in net liabilities which amounted to US$253.8 billion (22.5% of GDP). The value was lower than net liabilities in the 4Q19 which reached US$339.4 billion (30.3% of GDP). The decrease in net liabilities was caused by faster-declining External Financial Liabilities (KFLN) than the External Financial Assets (AFLN). (For information purposes, PII is the statistics of the value and composition of Indonesia's external assets and liabilities in a particular period of time.)

 

The KFLN in 1Q20 was down by 13.5% Q/Q from US$712.9 billion to US$616.4 billion, mainly brought about by net outflow in portfolio investments, particularly in domestic government bonds (SBN) and stocks markets, as a result of increasing global uncertainties due to Covid-19 pandemic.

 

The AFLN in 1Q20 declined by 2.9% Q/Q from US$373.4 billion to US$362.6 billion, mainly caused by asset transactions in the form of official reserve assets (forex reserves). In addition to the transaction factor, declining AFLN was also influenced by revaluation resulting from the appreciation of the US dollar against other world major currencies and declining stocks indices in some countries in which residents put their investments. 

 

JCI

On yesterday trading, on Monday (29/6), JCI weakened by -2.3 points (-0.1%) to 4,902. The total transaction volume reached 6.6 billion shares. Meanwhile, the transaction value was recorded at Rp5.3T. Foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp603B, resulting in foreign net sell (YTD) of Rp15.2T.

 

Sectors strengthening were led by Finance (+0.37%), Trade (+0.32%) and Consumer Goods (+0.17%). Meanwhile, the highest weakening sector was led by Miscellaneous Industry (-1.82%), followed by Agriculture (-1.81%) and Property (-1.04%). The stocks that supported the JCI were BBCA (+0.5%), ICBP (+1.9%), and BRPT (+1.7%). Meanwhile, the following shares weighed on the performance of the JCI: ASII (-2.0%), BMRI (-1.2%), and TCPI (-6.7%).

 

U.S. NEWS   

U.S. stocks closed higher boosted by hopes of an economic stimulus after The Fed set up several new lending facilities to bolster the economy during the COVID19 pandemic and by a better than expected U.S. Pending Home Sales. Contracts to buy previously owned homes in May spiking 44.3%, compared with April, according to the National Association of Realtors. That beat expectations of a 15% rise, but Sales were still 5.1% lower compared against the same time last year.  The DJIA rose 2.32% to 25,595.05, the S&P 500 gained 1.47% to 3,053.47 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.20% to 9,874.15

 

U.S. Treasury yields were mostly unchanged, the benchmark 10-year notes were flat to yield 0.64%, while the 30-year bonds fell 16/32, yielding 1.39%. Two-year notes were flat to yield 0.16%.

 

Crude oil prices rose buoyed by some positive sentiment from China Industrial profits for May were up 6% from a year earlier, representing the first increase in 2020. WTI crude rose up by 2.55% to US$39.47/barrel. Brent futures rose by 1.12% to US$41.48barrel.

 

MACRO UPDATE

THE GOVERNMENT CONTINUES THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FIVE TOURISM PRIORITY AREA

To move and restore the national economy and reduce unemployment amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government through the Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing (PUPR) stated that the development and development of five priority tourism areas (Lake Toba, Borobudur, Labuan Bajo, Mandalika, and Likupang Manado) will continue to run. The government provides a budget of Rp6.0 trillion. From the beginning, the budget was not included in the PUPR budget cuts that had been cut to Rp44 Trillion in the reallocation and refocusing program in the context of COVID-19 mitigation.

 

COMPANY UPDATE

SSMS EXPENDED Rp100B AS OF JUNE 2020

PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk. (SSMS) expended Rp100B as of June 2020, and the Company’s capex budget is still at Rp300B by the end of year. However, the Rp300B figure is actually down from last year’s at Rp410.6B, although the Company said that there would be no additional plant and expansion, unlike last year. 

 

PTPP IS FINISHING GAS MACHINERY POWER PLANT

PT PP (Persero) Tbk (PTPP) is finishing a 140 MW Bangkanai gas machinery power plant Phase 2, located in Central Kalimantan. The plant, owned by PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero), is expected to conclude in September 2020 and its investment worth Rp780B.

 

BBRI ISSUED NEGOTIABLE CERTIFICATES OF DEPOSIT

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) issued Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCD) I Year 2020 amounting to Rp2T, which includes 3 series. In detail, a 3-month Series A worth Rp630B with an interest rate of 5.25%/year, 6-month Series B worth Rp520B with an interest rate of 5.5%/year, and 12-month Series C worth Rp850B with an interest rate of 5.75%/year. The electronic distribution date is on June 29.

 

BBRI’S BONDS RECEIVED THE HIGHEST RATING FROM PEFINDO

PEFINDO gave the highest rating "idAAA" for Sustainable Bonds IV - year 2017 - Phase III Series A, owned by PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI). It has a total value of Rp980,5B with maturity date on August 24, 2020. As of March 2020, BBRI has allocated its funds to the Central Bank of Indonesia (BI) and other bank accounts to repay the bonds. Going forwards, PEFINDO projects that BBRI would be capable of paying the Company’s long-term bonds.

 

DIVA EXPANDS ITS MARKETING NETWORKS

PT Distribusi Voucher Nusantara Tbk (DIVA) recorded revenue of Rp860,7B (+1,7%,Y/Y). The revenue growth was supported by Company’s business network expansion and added-value-service in the form of digital financial services. DIVA has 25.000 outlets partners (+17,6%,Y/Y) in 1Q20. Meanwhile, the Company’s digital financial services grew by 6,3% (Y/Y) in the same period. It will focus on SME digital business and infrastructure. Previously, DIVA has offered digital Business-to-Business (B2B - Digital Cluster) or WABA (WhatsApp for Business) using DIVA Intelligent Instant Messaging (IIM). It cooperates with Telkomsel (TLKM) and Axiata (EXCL). 

 

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

FOR TODAY – OUR JCI POSITIVE, WITH EXPECTED RANGE OF 4,850 to 5,000.

JCI closed slightly lower at 4,902. The Resistance hanging still at 5,018/130/5,230 while the Support lay still at 4,740/475. PSAR red dot still appeared, while EMA 5&20 just crossed and turned into dead cross pattern. MACD turns into negative while RSI and Stochastic were showing a posibility to turn positive.

Hence, according to the Technical Analysis, for this week our JCI will be NEGATIVE.

 

ADHI

Support            500

Resistance        1015

Target Price     995

 

BBTN

Support            900

Resistance        1930

Target Price     1800

 

BEEF

Support            210

Resistance        276

Target Price     260

 

DMAS

Support            102

Resistance        296

Target Price     246

 

GGRM

Support            46725

Resistance        49800

Target Price     49500

 

HOKI

Support            575

Resistance        780

Target Price     710

 

INCO

Support            2750

Resistance        3500

Target Price     3250

 

KAEF

Support            1160

Resistance        1455

Target Price     1400

 

TBIG

Support            1050

Resistance        1250

Target Price     1120

 

TLKM

Support            2880

Resistance        3540

Target Price     3400

           

WEGE

Support            107

Resistance        290

Target Price     240

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

 

 

 

 

 

Mon June 29Th, 2020

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