Logo Minnapadi
aboutusmpi.png
<< Back To Daily Report

Morning Dew 23 September 2020

FOCUS

HEADWINDS FROM ALL DIRECTIONS

Weakened for the second straight days this week, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) declined by -1.3% to 4,934 yesterday. There are reports that have dragged down the global equity market, including Indonesia.

 

The Ministry of Finance revised its 3Q20 GDP growth projections from a contraction of -1.1% to a growth of 0.2%, to a contraction of -2.9% to -1.0%. The economic contraction is estimated to persist until the end of the year, which, if it happens, the full-year Indonesia economic growth will be in negative territory. In 3Q20, household consumptions are estimated to contract by -3% to -1.5%; investment to contract by -8.5% to -6.6%; the government expenditure to grow by 9.8% to 17%; exports to contract by -13.9% to -8.7%; and imports to contract by -26.8% to -16%. Bottom line, the Ministry of Finance estimates that the full-year Indonesia economic growth will contract by -1.7% to -0.6%.

 

Globally, Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister, is reportedly considering a lockdown measure to curb the coronavirus spread, as the UK reported a surge in new daily cases of more than 4,000 last Sunday. Other European countries are also considering imposing lockdown measures to slow down the virus spread. To make matters worse, FinCEN Files, which consist of 2,500 pages, are leaked to the public. The files contain top secret documents in the banking and financial world and they mostly were sent by banks to the U.S. between 1999 to 2017. According to CNBC, the files also contain embezzlement schemes and tax evasion cases from world’s biggest financial institutions, while the values are estimated to reach US$2T.

 

As a result, looming uncertainties due to the pandemic, weakening economy, and other factors might have slowed down the global equity market.

 

JCI

On Tuesday trading (9/22), JCI weakened for the second consecutive trading day and closed lower by -65 points (-1.3%) to 4,934. Total transaction volume reached 8.9 billion shares with a transaction value of Rp6.8 trillion. Foreign investors still posted a net sell of Rp632.5 billion, fulfilling the foreign net sell record to 18 consecutive trading days and compounding the year-to-date foreign net sell to Rp40.6 trillion.

 

All industrial sectors retreated, which were led by agriculture (-2.50%), finance (-1.97%), and consumer goods (-1.20%). Stocks supporting the JCI were ICBP (+1.0%), INKP (+2.2%), and SRTG (+7.3%). By contrast, stocks weighing down the JCI were BBCA (-2.8%), BMRI (-3.2%), and BBRI (-1.9%).

 

U.S. NEWS  

U.S. stocks closed higher with S&P 500, and Nasdaq snapped a four-day losing streak after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday repeated calls for Congress to enact additional aid to help the economy, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the White House was interested in reaching a deal with lawmakers. On the other side, the Washington Post reported that the FDA is expected to release a tough guidance for an emergency authorization of a coronavirus vaccine, making any pre-electoral distribution unlikely. The DJIA rose 0.52% to 27,288.18, the S&P 500 gained 1.05% to 3,315.46 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.68% to 10,959.36.

 

U.S. Treasury yields fell as investors moved into safe-haven assets amid renewed worries over the new COVID-19 restrictions in Europe. The benchmark 10-year notes were down 1/32 to yield 0.67% and the 30-year bonds rose 1/32 to yield 1.43%. The 2-year notes were flat to yield 0.14%.

 

Crude oil prices closed slightly higher as traders thought that renewed lockdown restrictions in Europe will have only a limited impact on crude oil demand, any new restrictions will likely be more localized. Furthermore the American Petroleum Institute (API) data supports crude oil prices, as large gasoline draw offsets crude oil build. The API reported a significant draw in crude oil inventories of 9.5 Mb, after analysts had predicted a smaller draw of 1.2-2.3 Mb. WTI crude rose by 0.61% to US$39.55/barrel, while Brent crude up by 0.70% to US$41.73/barrel.

 

COMPANY UPDATE

AS OF AUGUST 2020 BMRI WEALTH MANAGEMENT FUNDS HAS BEEN EXCEEDED FY2020 TARGET

PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk (BMRI) as of August 2020 recorded a realization of wealth management funds of Rp227 T, up by 9% (Y/Y). This realization has exceeded the FY2020 target of Rp225 T. From the managed fund, as of August 2020, BMRI was able to increase fee-based income (FBI) by 20% compared to last year's position. As of August 2020, BMRI also recorded third party funds (DPK) growth of 11.64% (Y/Y).

 

On the other hand, based on the Financial Services Authority's Basic Credit Interest Rate (SBDK) data, BMRI lowered its loan interest from 9.95% per June 2020 to 9.85% as of July 2020. Meanwhile, other state-owned banks have not lowered their prime lending rates, such as PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia ( Persero) Tbk (BBRI) at 9.95%, PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI) at 9.85%, and PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BBTN) at 10.5%.

 

THE FOLLOW UP OF ACST’S RIGHTS ISSUE

PT Acset Indonusa, Tbk. (ACST) has conducted rights issue of 5.72 billion shares at a price of Rp262/share and managed to raise Rp1.49 trillion from the corporate action. The fund will be used for paying some of its loan to shareholder, PT United Tractors, Tbk. (UNTR), which amounted to Rp2.04 trillion, making the outstanding loan reduced to Rp544.75 billion.

 

EPMT ALREADY SPENT Rp150 BILLION OF CAPEX TO BUILD WAREHOUSE IN DELTAMAS

The subsidiary of PT Kalbe Farma, Tbk. (KLBF) in the distribution and logistics segment, PT Enseval Putera Mega Trading, Tbk. (EPMT), has completed the development of a warehouse located in the Greenland International Industrial Complex (GIIC) in Deltamas. EPMT has spent Rp150 billion of capital expenditure for the warehouse, which consists of a distribution center of 11,104 m2 and a storage for raw materials of 12,914 m2. Going forward, EPMT will maximize its expansion to Sumatera, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi and has allocated Rp50 billion for that.

 

FILM ALLOCATES Rp7.5 BILLION TO PRODUCE 4 MOVIE SERIES

The production house PT MD Pictures, Tbk. (FILM) will produce four movie series in the next one year. Therefore, FILM has put Rp7.5 billion from internal cash to its subsidiary PT MD Entertainment. The four movies are My Lecturer, My Husband, Malapetaka, Kisah untuk Geri, and Cinta Fitri.

 

PTBA STOP EXPLORATION ACTIVITIES UNTIL MARCH 2021

PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) stated that for the next 6 (six) months until March 2021 the company will stop non-Oil and Gas mining exploration activities. The company does not carry out exploration activities for additional resources outside the area that has obtained an exploitation permit.

 

MDLN OBTAINED RATING UPGRADE FROM PEFINDO

PT Modernland Realty Tbk (MDLN) received a rating upgrade from PEFINDO for PT Modernland Realty Tbk's Sustainable Bond I 2015 Series B from "idD" to "idCCC" because MDLN succeeded in reaching an agreement with bondholders to extend the bond maturity for one year to 7 July 2021, while reducing the interest rate to 10% from 12.5%.

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

JCI IS NEUTRAL WITH EXPECTED RANGE OF 4,880 to 5,020

JCI closed lower to 4,934 with the Support lay at 4,754 while the Resistance hanging at 5,190/380. EMA 5&20 still in death cross pattern while EMA20&50 prone to turn into death cross pattern. PSAR green still appeared. MACD still in the negative territory along with Stochastic turn to negative again and RSI was curled lower.

Hence, if turnout that today JCI movement shall be confirming its death cross pattern for EMA20&50 and combined with appearing PSAR red dot, so JCI will be sunk even deeper.

 

ADHI

Support            500

Resistance        1015

Target Price     995

 

ADRO

Support            1030

Resistance        1350

Target Price     1280

 

BBTN

Support            900

Resistance        1930

Target Price     1800

 

FAST

Support            880

Resistance        950

Target Price     950

 

HMSP

Support            1455

Resistance        1650

Target Price     1650

 

PTBA

Support            1930

Resistance        2500

Target Price     2280

 

PWON

Support            332

Resistance        434

Target Price     420

           

WEGE

Support            107

Resistance        290

Target Price     240

 

For a detailed explanation, please see the Morning Dew PDF full version

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Wed September 23Th, 2020

Disclaimer

En Lorem Ipsum In Eiusmod.

EN HOME LOREM IPSUM EU NISI NISI LABORE ANIM REPREHENDERIT ADIPISICING SED LABORE QUIS UT TEMPOR ESSE QUIS CILLUM VENIAM CILLUM SUNT NISI CILLUM UT FUGIAT FUGIAT UT OFFICIA ET QUIS.

En Lorem ipsum Velit sit magna adipisicing laborum eu voluptate exercitation minim sit ex incididunt exercitation ut in sunt culpa quis magna sed dolor in et amet sunt id fugiat sint laboris sed officia est id officia eiusmod eu reprehenderit ullamco sed esse aliquip ex minim occaecat amet ad nulla voluptate do officia in reprehenderit quis officia dolore pariatur in quis consectetur ut nostrud aliqua sed officia fugiat nisi incididunt anim in laborum.

Lorem ipsum Dolor dolor dolore quis magna nulla aute ea sed velit id amet ut id minim proident cupidatat anim pariatur ex do dolore ut sit mollit ex voluptate consequat sit eu esse cillum exercitation eu dolore pariatur sunt et ut est Ut dolore id voluptate qui Ut in fugiat non exercitation Excepteur sunt magna ullamco sint do quis laboris dolore dolore pariatur laboris nulla mollit nisi laboris magna in aute Ut enim Excepteur est culpa in enim officia enim ea cillum fugiat dolore proident officia eiusmod pariatur in elit et aliquip esse culpa sint in fugiat aliquip cupidatat non id aliquip sit ad reprehenderit mollit dolor aliqua Duis in amet exercitation ut ut cillum et adipisicing qui aliqua.