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Morning Dew 18 March 2020

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INDONESIA EXTERNAL DEBT GREW SLOWER

In January 2020, Indonesia's external debt reached US$410.8B, which consists of public sector debt (US$207.8B) and private sector debt (US$203B). Private foreign debt grew +5.8% (Y/Y), slower than that of December at +6.5% (Y/Y), which was weighed down by slower financial institution debt. Government debt-wise, the figures reached US$204.9B, which grew +9.5% (Y/Y). The growth was supported by nonresident investors’ funds in Surat Berharga Nasional (SBN) especially in USD and Euro. For additional information, global bonds position rose by US$2.7B or grew +8.1% (Y/Y), while at the same time, domestic SBN increased US$2.4B or grew +21.9% (Y/Y). Overall, Indonesia's external debt grew +7.5% (Y/Y), slower than that of December at +7.7% (Y/Y).

 

Bottom line, in January, Indonesia foreign debt position remained resilient, as seen from foreign debt to GDP ratio at 36%, lower than that of December. Moreover, 89.3% of Indonesia foreign debt is long-term, while the remaining 10.7% is short-term.

 

JCI

On Tuesday trading session (3/17), JCI continued its tumbling-more-than -4% trend or -233.9 points (-4.99%) to 4,698, after being temporarily halted twice for crossing the -5% threshold. Transaction volume was recorded at 4.8 billion shares with Rp7T of trading value. Foreign investors posted a net buy of Rp1T, resulting in the year-to-date accumulation of foreign net sell of Rp8.6 trillion.

 

All sectors retreated, led by basic industry (-5.90%), infrastructure (-5.87%), and manufacturing (-5.70%). Stocks supporting JCI  were  BCAP (+17.8%), CMNP (+18.2%), and IPTV (+6.0%). On the other hand, stocks weighing down JCI were BBCA (-7.0%), BBRI (-6.9%), and TLKM (-7.0%).

 

U.S. NEWS  

U.S. stocks jumped as the Federal Reserve took further steps to boost liquidity and stem damage amid the COVID-19 crisis, the Fed announced that it would start to buy up short-term US company debt. In addition, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said at a press briefing that the Trump administration is considering sending direct payments to Americans as part of a massive US$1 Trillion stimulus package and announced that individuals and businesses will be allowed to defer tax payments. DJIA rose 5.19% to 21,237.01, the S&P 500 gained 5.99% to 2,528.96 and the Nasdaq added 6.23% to 7,334.78.

 

U.S. Treasury yields rose as the bond-market anticipates fiscal stimulus. The benchmark 10-year notes fell 3-13/32, yielding 1.07%. Short-dated two-year notes fell 10/32 with a yield of 0.51 and 30-year bonds fell 9-23/32, yielding 1.70%.

 

Oil prices continued to fall below US$30/barrel to another four-year low. Brent crude fell -4.83%, to US$28.60/barrel and WTI crude plunged -6.34%, at US$26.88/barrel

 

INDUSTRY UPDATE

IIMS IN JAKARTA AND MAKASSAR WERE POSTPONE 

To limit the spreading of COVID-19, PT Dyandra Media International Tbk (DYAN) through its subsidiary, PT Dyandra Promosindo Tbk will postpone the exhibition of Indonesia International Motor Show (IIMS) 2020 which is scheduled to be held on  9-19 April 2020 at JIExpo, Kemayoran, Jakarta and regional IIMS in Makassar scheduled for 15-19 April 2020 in Celebes Convention Center (CCC). 

 

COMPANY UPDATE

WSKT & ACSET RECEIVED PAYMENT FROM JASA MARGA GROUP

PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WSKT) & PT Acset Indonusa Tbk (ACST) received payment amounting to Rp6.2T from PT Jasa Marga Jalan layang Cikampek for the  jalan tol Jakarta-Cikampek II (Rp12.3T) project. WSKT targeted to receive payment amounting to Rp10T from its current projects which it has been undertaking until now. Besides, the Company targeted to receive refund of bailout funds from the State Asset Management Institute (LMAN) amounting to Rp4.5T and obtain a new contract value amounting to Rp45T-Rp50T this year. While ACST will diversify its revenue segment (soil improvement & marine works). ACST will provide CAPEX amounting to Rp150B- Rp 200B to focus on strategic infrastructure projects such as landed & elevated toll roads, power plants & ports this year. ACST has also joined with PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META), PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) & PT Triputra Utama Selaras in the tender for the Jakarta Outer Ring Road (JORR) Elevated project for the Ulujami-Jati Asih toll road (Rp21.5T).

 

TOPS’ NEW CONTRACT AMOUNTING TO Rp66B 

PT Totalindo Eka Persada Tbk (TOPS) obtained a new contract (Rp66B) from International Halal Network Office Building, HNI Plaza.The project will start this month and be completed in 15 months. The project includes: Design & Build of HNI Plaza in East Jakarta on an area of 3.794 square meters. TOPS targeted to get contracts amounting to Rp3T throughthout 2020. Projects that have been completed by TOPS are Kota Kasablanka 3, Capital Place and Four Seasons, Basura City, New World Grand Bali Resort, Podomoro City Deli Medan dan Kalibata City (18 tower).

 

EXPORT realization of JAPFA VARIOUS PRODUCTS REACHED AMOUNTING TO Rp56m

As of March 2020, PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA) realized exports of various products amounting to Rp56B to the United States, Japan, Democratic Republic of Timor Leste, Singapore, Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam and Malaysia. The products are processed chicken, carcasses, day old chickens, animal feed, and livestock vaccine and fishery products. JPFA targets export amounting to Rp675B from poultry and fishery line business.

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

JCI IS POSITIVE, WITH EXPECTED RANGE OF 4,300 to 4,600.

JCI was closed lower at 4,456 breaching the two nearest Support at 4,640/560 so the next Support lays at 4,410/330 while the Resistance hanging still at 5,020/130. PSAR red dot still appeared along with EMA 5, 20&50 still in dead cross pattern. MACD, RSI, and Stochastic still negative along with the Candlestick breached the lower Bbline. Hence, our JCI still negative from technical analyst outlook, but showed a possibility to rebound after weakened for two days.

 

ACES

Support            1440

Resistance        1890

Target Price      1800

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Wed March 18Th, 2020

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