Logo Minnapadi
aboutusmpi.png
<< Back To Daily Report

Morning Dew 14 February 2020

FOCUS

THE 4Q19 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEX RESULT

In 4Q19, the Residential Property Price Index rose +0.3% (Q/Q), but lower than that of 3Q19 at +0.5% (Q/Q).  On the one hand, small-type house price was recorded at a slower growth at +0.26% (Q/Q) vs. +0.96% (Q/Q) in 3Q19; while on the other hand, both medium and large-type house price growth rates were seen to accelerate to +0.32% (Q/Q), from previously +0.3% (Q/Q) and +0.24% (Q/Q), respectively. 

 

In the same quarter, residential property sales contracted by -16.33% (Q/Q), in contrast to the growing sales in 3Q19 at +16.18% (Q/Q). Yearly, 4Q19 property sales growth also decelerated to +1.19% (Y/Y) from +13.95% (Y/Y). High mortgage rate, according to the survey, was deemed by 20% of the respondents as the major factor for the hampered sales. In addition, other factors, such as bureaucracy (15.9%), high advances for mortgage requirement (14.8%), and taxation issue (13.7%), were also seen to have resulted in slower sales growth.

 

In 1Q20, the residential property price index is expected to enjoy a limited growth of +0.43% (Q/Q), yet higher than that of 4Q19. Yearly growth, however, is projected to decelerate to +1.66% (Y/Y) from +1.77% (Y/Y) in the wake of slower medium and large-type house growth rates at +1.99% (Y/Y) and +0.93% (Y/Y), respectively. 

 

JCI

On Thursday trading session, JCI was closed lower by -41.1 pts (-0.7%) to 5,872. Total trading volume reached 4.6B shares, with a total transaction value of Rp6.8T. Foreign investors posted a net buy of Rp49B, resulting in the cumulative YTD foreign net buy of Rp1.26T. 

 

All sectors weakened except for finance (+0.06%), while the retreating sectors were led by agriculture (-2.73%), basic industry (-1.96%), and infrastructure (-1.71%). Stocks supporting the JCI were BBRI (+0.9%), EMTK (+12.2%), and BMRI (+0.6%). In contrast, stocks weighing down the JCI were TLKM (-2.4%), UNVR (-2.6%), and CPIN (-3.5%).

 

U.S. NEWS 

U.S. stocks closed lower, as investors were shocked on new coronavirus developments (COVID-19), mixed corporate earnings, and U.S. annual inflation rate climbed to 2.5% in January of 2020 from 2.3% in December, beating market forecasts of 2.4% and the highest rate since October of 2018. The Chinese government on Thursday applied a new diagnostic method in Hubei province and showed a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases and deaths. There were 254 new deaths from the virus over the past 24 hours, while the number of new cases jumped 15,152. From the latest data as of 14 February, 6:43 a.m. ET, total confirmed cases reach 60,370 with total deaths reach 1,371 and total recovered hit 6,295. The DJIA fell 0.43% to 29,423.67, the S&P 500 lost 0.16% to 3,374.08 and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.14% to 9,711.97.

 

U.S. Treasury yields fell after China reported a sharp jump in the confirmed cases of COVID-19. The 10-year notes were up 3/32 to yield 1.62%. The two-year notes were flat, yielding 1.44%. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department sold US$19 billion in 30-year bonds at a high yield of 2.061%. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.43.

 

Oil prices continue to rise boosted by investors optimism that OPEC and its allies would agree in deeper production curbs after the spreading coronavirus outbreak hit demand in China. WTI closed higher by +0.8% to US$51.58/barrel, while Brent crude was up by +1.31% to US$56.52/barrel.

 

MACRO UPDATE

ADJUSTMENTS TO CHICKEN AND EGG’S PRICES

The Ministry of Trade adjusts through Permendag 7/2020 the reference prices of chicken and egg on breeders and consumers level. The price floor (PF) for the buying of chicken and egg from breeders to increase to Rp19,000/kg (previously Rp18,000/kg) and the price ceiling (PC) to be Rp21,000/kg from Rp20,000/kg. In line with buying prices, the selling prices to consumers are to rise as well, i.e. Rp35,000/kg (prev. Rp34,000/kg) for chicken and Rp24,000/kg (prev. Rp23,000/kg) for egg.

 

Additionally, the government also regulates the prices of day old chick (DOC) broiler and layer chickens, and pullet (20-week-old chicken). The detail: selling PF for DOC broiler from breeders to be Rp5,000/head and PC Rp6,000/head, PF for DOC layer to be Rp8,000/head and PC Rp10,000/head, while selling price for pullet to user to be Rp90,000/head.

 

COMPANY UPDATE

EXCL’S INORGANIC EXPANSION

In order to expand its fiber to the home (FTTH) business, PT Excel Axiata, Tbk. (EXCL) is planning to conduct a corporate action of merger and acquisition (M&A) with an FTTH operator company. In addition to this inorganic expansion, EXCL is currently exploring cooperation to develop the FTTH network, which is intended to widening homepass coverage of the firm. So far, EXCL already owns 250,000 homepass in 11 cities.

 

ASTRA INFRA TARGETED A 500 KM TOLL ROAD BY 2020

Astra Infra, a business line of PT Astra International Tbk, targeted toll road (500 KM) by 2020. The Company is managing toll roads (350KM - 6 toll roads) now. To achieve this target, the Company will acquire a business entity (BUMN) that will release its share ownership in the toll road company such as PT PP & Waskita Toll Road.

 

PPRO ENTERING THE LANDED HOUSE SEGMENT

PT PP Properti Tbk (PPRO) is targeting revenue in 2020 of Rp3.1T with a net profit of Rp346B. and budgeted capex of Rp.887B. To realize those targets, the company will improve the company's financial performance by developing landed houses, residential projects, and increasing recurring income through malls and hotels owned by the company. The company will build landed house products in Rancasari, Bandung, Transyogi, Cibubur, and Cengkareng, West Jakarta. Until now the company still has 310 Ha land banks, the company believes that with the remaining land bank the company still be able to continue to develop projects for the next 30 years.

 

MBSS’ CAPEX  INCREASED BY 24,7%

PT Mitrabahtera Segara Sejati Tbk (MBSS) will allocate CAPEX amounting to US$14,6M (+24.7%; Y/Y) in 2020. The funds will be used for ships maintenance and rejuvenation. MBSS increased its CAPEX because  the ship docking schedules are very busy. However, MBSS has not planned to add new ships this year. As of 3Q19, MBSS won 3 contracts that ended in 2019: Adaro, Muji Lines (Bayan Wahana) & Prolindo Cipta Nusantara. The Company is negotiating to extend the contracts and get new contracts. MBSS currently is working on a coal demolition project & leasing a floating crane unit for the Suralaya Power Generation Unit SPOJ PLTU.

 

BJBR ISSUED SUB DEBT Rp500B

PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk (BJBR) offered sub debt ( PUB II) ) step i amounting to Rp500B. These bonds consist of two series: Seri A (Rp132B) with fixed interest rate 8,6%/year for 5 year (bullet payment) & Seri B (Rp368B) with fixed interest rate 9,35%/year for 7 year (bullet payment). It will be used to strengthen its capital structure. BJBR appointed 4 underwriter companies: PT Mandiri Sekuritas, PT CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia & PT Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk.

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

JCI IS NEGATIVE, WITH EXPECTED RANGE OF 5,760 to 5,910.

JCI was closed lower at 5,872 with lowest price breach the Support at 5,870 so the next Support lay at 5,760 while the Resistance stood at 6,010. PSAR red dot just appears along with MACD still negative. RSI and Stochastic curled lower along with EMA 5,20&50 still in a dead cross pattern while. Hence, from technical analysis our JCI is NEGATIVE

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

 

 

ADRO

Support            1010

Resistance        1587

Target Price      1500

 

ASII

Support            6025

Resistance        6550

Target Price      6650

 

BBNI

Support            7200

Resistance        7750

Target Price      8150

 

BJBR

Support            960

Resistance        1650

Target Price      1400

 

BRPT

Support            1200

Resistance        1510

Target Price      1480

 

HEAL

Support            3190

Resistance        3500

Target Price      3600

 

ICBP

Support            10700

Resistance        11850

Target Price      12550

 

MIKA

Support            1890

Resistance        2940

Target Price      2850

 

MYOR

Support            1800

Resistance        2100

Target Price      2150

 

PTPP

Support            1350

Resistance        1850

Target Price      1750

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Fri February 14Th, 2020

Disclaimer

En Lorem Ipsum In Eiusmod.

EN HOME LOREM IPSUM EU NISI NISI LABORE ANIM REPREHENDERIT ADIPISICING SED LABORE QUIS UT TEMPOR ESSE QUIS CILLUM VENIAM CILLUM SUNT NISI CILLUM UT FUGIAT FUGIAT UT OFFICIA ET QUIS.

En Lorem ipsum Velit sit magna adipisicing laborum eu voluptate exercitation minim sit ex incididunt exercitation ut in sunt culpa quis magna sed dolor in et amet sunt id fugiat sint laboris sed officia est id officia eiusmod eu reprehenderit ullamco sed esse aliquip ex minim occaecat amet ad nulla voluptate do officia in reprehenderit quis officia dolore pariatur in quis consectetur ut nostrud aliqua sed officia fugiat nisi incididunt anim in laborum.

Lorem ipsum Dolor dolor dolore quis magna nulla aute ea sed velit id amet ut id minim proident cupidatat anim pariatur ex do dolore ut sit mollit ex voluptate consequat sit eu esse cillum exercitation eu dolore pariatur sunt et ut est Ut dolore id voluptate qui Ut in fugiat non exercitation Excepteur sunt magna ullamco sint do quis laboris dolore dolore pariatur laboris nulla mollit nisi laboris magna in aute Ut enim Excepteur est culpa in enim officia enim ea cillum fugiat dolore proident officia eiusmod pariatur in elit et aliquip esse culpa sint in fugiat aliquip cupidatat non id aliquip sit ad reprehenderit mollit dolor aliqua Duis in amet exercitation ut ut cillum et adipisicing qui aliqua.