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Morning Dew 11 March 2020

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SLUGGISH RETAIL SALES IN JANUARY 2020 

Bank Indonesia (BI) recorded a decline in retail sales in January 2020, as seen from the Real Sales Index (RSI) in January 2020 of 217.5 or -0.28% (Y/Y) or -7.5% (M/M), slightly improved when compared to December 2019 by -0.5% (Y/Y) which caused by a decrease in commodity group from the clothing, sales of the spare parts and accessories group.

 

For retail sales in February 2020, BI also predicted that there would be a deeper decline, it can be seen from the RSI in February 2020 of 214 or -1.92% (Y/Y) or -1.6% (M/M) caused by a decrease in the clothing, communication equipment, spare parts, accessories and food, beverages and tobacco category.

 

Regional retail sales growth for January 2020 slowed by -1.9% (Y/Y), with the biggest declines coming from Surabaya -10% (Y/Y) and Makassar -7.2% (Y/Y), while Jakarta experienced a hikes by +15.7% (Y/Y).

 

Price increases at the level of retail traders for the next three months (PEI-April 2020) and the next six months IEH (PEI-July 2020) is expected to increase in line with the normalization of household consumption after increasing demand in the month of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr.

 

JCI

JCI in trading on Tuesday (10/03/2020) rose +84 points to 5,221 (+1.64%). The transaction volume reached 6.1 Billion shares, with a value amounting to Rp7.2T. Foreign Investors booked a net purchase amounting to Rp857M and resulted with total purchase amounting to  Rp7.1T in 2020. 

 

All sectors strengthened except Agriculture (-0.04%), the highest increase was experienced by: Finance (+2.38%), Consumer Goods (+2.19%) and Manufacture Invoice (+1.93%). The stocks that supported the JCI are BBRI (+4.3%), BBCA (+2.4%) and BMRI (+4.6%). For stocks that weakened JCI performance: MAYA (-8.7%), BRPT (-2.4%) and PLIN (-9.9%).

 

U.S. NEWS  

U.S. stocks surge after experienced the worst day since 2008 crisis, fueled by a White House push to persuade Congress to agree to a fiscal stimulus package that may include a payroll tax cut to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. Cited from CNBC, Donald Trump pitched a 0% payroll tax rate that would last through the rest of 2020. Moreover, Donald Trump reassured investors after he stated that he will announce “very dramatic” actions to support the economy. The DJIA 4.89%, to 25,018.16, the S&P 500 gained 4.94%, to 2,882.23 and the Nasdaq added 4.95%, to 8,344.25.

 

U.S. Treasury yields rose, books biggest one-day climb since June 2009 on fiscal stimulus hopes. The benchmark 10-year notes yielding 0.79%, with the price rising to 3-1/32. The 30-year bonds rose 10-23/32, to a yield of 1.31%. On the short end of the curve, the 2-year notes were 12/32 higher, yielding 0.53%.

 

Oil prices jumped after experienced the biggest drop since 1991, buoyed by a possibility that there was almost an immediate response from U.S. producers to cut spending that will likely result in diminished U.S. oil output in the months ahead. Brent crude rose 9.55%, to US$37.64/barrel and WTI crude was up 10.79%, at US$34.49/barrel.

 

MARKET UPDATE

BUYBACK ACTIVITIES BY TWELVE INDONESIA STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES (BUMN) 

Twelve Indonesia State-owned Enterprises (BUMN) carried out buybacks with a total value amounting to Rp7T - Rp8T. The BUMN lists are PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) amounting to Rp300B, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) amounting to Rp1.8T, PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) amounting to Rp500B - Rp1T, PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BBTN) amounting to Rp300B, PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) amounting to Rp300B, PT Waskita Karya Tbk (WSKT) amounting to Rp400B, PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) amounting to Rp500B, PT Adhi Karya Tbk (ADHI) amounting to Rp150B, PT PP Tbk (PTPP) amounting to Rp300B, PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) amounting to Rp100B -Rp200B, PT Timah Tbk (TINS) amounting to Rp100B - Rp200B, and PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) amounting to Rp350B.

 

COMPANY UPDATE

TLKM TO ADD 23,000 NEW BTS IN 2020

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero), Tbk. (TLKM) through its subsidiary PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel) plans to build 23,000 new base transceiver stations (BTS) 4G in all over Indonesia. This is in order to equalize telecommunication access (TLKM’s 4G network has already covered 95% of Indonesia’s territory), and to fulfill the needs of digital lifestyle. In FY19, TLKM noted a year-on-year increase of +52% in data traffic. Besides, TLKM is to utilize the latest technology for its new BTS, i.e. NB-IoT, VoLTE, and Carrier Aggregation.

 

PRDA NET PROFIT GROWTH IN 2019 REACHED BY 20.53%

PT Prodia Widyahusada Tbk. (PRDA) recorded a net profit (+20.53%;Y/Y) amounting to Rp210.26B in 2019. While the growth of COGS was 7.04% in the same period. PRDA has assets of Rp2.01T with current assets of Rp1,25T & non-current assets of Rp756.61B. Company’s CAPEX reached Rp241.74B (+24.23%;Y/Y) in 2019. For CAPEX in 2020, it is planned to reach Rp350B to build 5 outlets - 7 outlets, improve information technology systems and service quality.

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

JCI IS POSITIVE, WITH EXPECTED RANGE OF 5,150 to 5,360.

JCI was closed higher at 5,220. PSAR red dot allready appeared along with EMA 5, 20&50 still in dead cross pattern. MACD and RSI still flatened and negative. Stochastic still negative but signaling up along with the Candlestick start to bounching up from the lower Bbline. Support lays at 5,020/4,940 while the Resistance hanging still at 5,750/845

Hence, from technical analysis and foreign sentiment, our JCI is POSITIVE.

 

TPIA

Support            7050

Resistance        8400

Target Price      8500

 

ELSA

Support            210

Resistance        390

Target Price      380

 

ACES

Support            1440

Resistance        1890

Target Price      1800

 

KLBF

Support            1170

Resistance        1690

Target Price      1500

 

BJBR

Support            810

Resistance        1400

Target Price      1270

 

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

 

 

 

Wed March 11Th, 2020

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